Ana on the left, 90L (soon to be Bill?) on the right.

---

Hurricane Watch - Tropical Storm Ana tracking thread.
Note: This poster does not respond to off-board emails.

| Hurricane Watch Team |

000
WTNT32 KNHC 151432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA...PRONOUNCED AH-NA...MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT
920 MILES...1480 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

---

Hurricane Watch - Tropical Storm Ana tracking thread.
Note: This poster does not respond to off-board emails.

Hopefully I can catch a few of the advisories for you this weekend. Doesn't look like it will become a full blown hurricane, but will dump a lot of water.
Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Ana; click the link below for details.
Natural Disaster and Weather Related Emergency Board

| Hurricane Watch Team |

000
WTNT42 KNHC 152048
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

THE CENTER OF ANA CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE
CONVECTION BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
NEAR ANA ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY...MOST OF THE
CONTRIBUTION TO THE SHEAR SEEMS TO BE FROM THE FAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. OVERALL...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD STEER ANA QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH ALL
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE 120 HR FORECAST POINTS. THE
ECMWF AND BAMS ARE AT THE NORTHERN EXTREME...FORECASTING ANA TO
PASS OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HR.
AT THE OTHER EXTREME ARE THE UKMET...GFDN...AND BAMM...WHICH
FORECAST ANA TO PASS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND BE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AT 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE NOGAPS. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NOTABLY NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT SHEAR IS A TEMPORARY TREND OR A
SIGN OF LONG-TERM TROUBLE FOR ANA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THE FORMER IS THE CASE...AND SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO
CALL FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS STILL SURROUNDED
BY DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK NOW
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ON HISPANIOLA...AN OCCURRENCE
THAT HAS DESTROYED STORMS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANA. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THIS PASSAGE AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CUBA. AS BEFORE...THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 14.4N 50.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 14.7N 52.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.4N 56.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 16.1N 59.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.2N 63.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 19.0N 70.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1800Z 21.5N 76.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

---

Hurricane Watch - Tropical Storms Ana & Bill tracking threads.
Note: This poster does not respond to off-board emails.

| Hurricane Watch Team |

000
WTNT32 KNHC 160554
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
200 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA CONTINUES WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST OR ABOUT 640
MILES...1035 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 52.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

---

Hurricane Watch - Tropical Storms Ana & Bill tracking threads.
Note: This poster does not respond to off-board emails.

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 16, 2009

Bill is displaying a beautiful curved band pattern on satellite
imagery this morning with a new burst of convection occurring near
the center. A 0808 UTC Quikscat pass showed maximum winds of at
least 45 kt...and Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are between
45-55 kt. The initial intensity is set to 50 kt as a blend of the
above data.

A series of microwave passes and visible images have confirmed that
the center has shifted a little bit to the north and the initial
motion is about 285/14. A continued west-northwest motion is
expected for the new few days due to subtropical ridging to the
north of Bill. All of the global models besides the UKMET show
the tropical cyclone moving to the north of the Leeward Islands as a
break in the ridge forms at about 65w. Model guidance has shifted
to the northeast this morning...and the official forecast follows
that trend.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued
intensification due to light shear and warm waters. SSTs begin to
rise more significantly in a couple of days and the NHC intensity
forecast could be conservative after that time. All reliable
guidance shows this system eventually becoming a major hurricane...
though at differing time periods with the statistical guidance
showing it happening earlier than the dynamical models. The NHC
forecast is raised from the previous one...and is in good agreement
with the SHIPS/lgem through 72 hours. The intensity forecast is
leveled off after 96 hours due the possibility of westerly shear
developing...as suggested by the GFS/ECMWF models.

The Quikscat pass from this morning showed that the wind field with
Bill has expanded...and consequently the initial 12 ft seas and
forecast wind radii are larger than the previous forecast.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/1500z 12.1n 38.4w 50 kt
12hr VT 17/0000z 12.6n 40.4w 60 kt
24hr VT 17/1200z 13.4n 43.1w 70 kt
36hr VT 18/0000z 14.3n 45.9w 80 kt
48hr VT 18/1200z 15.2n 48.6w 90 kt
72hr VT 19/1200z 17.5n 54.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 20/1200z 20.5n 59.0w 105 kt
120hr VT 21/1200z 24.0n 63.5w 105 kt

$$
forecaster Blake

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on August 16, 2009

...Aircraft finds Ana poorly organized...barely a tropical storm...

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico...the
U.S. Virgin Islands...the British Virgin Islands...Montserrat...
Antigua...Barbuda...St. Kitts...Nevis...Anguilla...St. Maarten...St.
Martin...Saba...St. Eustatius...Dominica...Guadeloupe...and St.
Barthelemy. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Ana. Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States
...Including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States...please monitor products issued
by your National meteorological service.

At 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Ana was
located near latitude 14.9 north...longitude 57.8 west or about 240
miles...385 km...east of the Dominica.

Ana is moving toward the west near 25 mph...40 km/hr. This general
motion is expected to continue with a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight. On this track Ana should reach the Leeward
Islands late tonight or early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts...and little change in strength is forecast during the next
couple of days. Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Ana is poorly organized and could dissipate as a
tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Ana is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over
the Leeward Islands...including Puerto Rico...and the U.S. And
British Virgin Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
over mountainous terrain.

...summary of 200 PM AST information...
location...14.9n 57.8w
maximum sustained winds...40 mph
present movement...west or 270 degrees at 25 mph
minimum central pressure...1005 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts