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Last Post Aug 17, 2009 10:19 PM by: comfortably_numb!
Replies: 20
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**christymj**
Posts: 388
(15 of 20)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - Ana, First in a late starting 2009 season.

Aug 16, 2009 11:07 AM
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 16, 2009

Ana continues to race westward...with limited deep convection over
the low-level center. A 0950 UTC Quikscat pass showed some
believable 30 kt winds...and assuming winds are higher in the
convection near the center the intensity is held generously at
35 kt for this package. Aircraft reconnaissance will be
investigating the cyclone early this afternoon and should help
determine if Ana is still a tropical storm.
The environment near and ahead of Ana is rather dry and dominated by
subsidence...as indicated by water vapor imagery and radiosonde
data from the Lesser Antilles. The GFDL...SHIPS...and lgem continue
to suggest that Ana will intensify somewhat over the next couple of
days. However...given the negative factors discussed above...only
slight intensification is shown through 48 hours. Beyond that
time...the intensity of Ana will be dictated primarily by its
interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba...and the intensity forecast
accounts for this with weakening.
The track forecast is quite similar to the previous package...
showing a quick westward to west-northwestward motion through the
first 3 or 4 days of the forecast period. Beyond that time there
is a split in the track guidance...with the ECMWF and HWRF showing
a turn toward the northwest...while the UKMET and NOGAPS show a
continued west-northwest heading. The official forecast is nudged
toward the multi-model consensus at day 5 and shows a decrease in
forward speed.
Given the uncertainty in the initial intensity of Ana...tropical
storm watches continue for most of the northern Leeward Islands...
the Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico. If aircraft reconnaissance
finds Ana is a tropical storm...warnings will likely be required
later today.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/1500z 14.8n 55.8w 35 kt
12hr VT 17/0000z 15.2n 58.7w 35 kt
24hr VT 17/1200z 16.1n 62.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 18/0000z 17.1n 66.7w 40 kt
48hr VT 18/1200z 18.3n 70.7w 45 kt
72hr VT 19/1200z 21.0n 77.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 20/1200z 23.5n 83.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 21/1200z 25.5n 85.5w 30 kt

$$
forecaster Brennan/Roberts

Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Fred; click the link below for details.
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**christymj**
Posts: 388
(16 of 20)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - Ana, First in a late starting 2009 season.

Aug 16, 2009 5:24 PM
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on August 16, 2009

...Tropical depression remains poorly-organized...

at 800 PM...0000 UTC...the tropical storm watch for Dominica has
been discontinued.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Dominican Republic
from Cabo engano westward to Cabo Beata and for the Caribbean
islands of Puerto Rico...the U.S. Virgin Islands...the British
Virgin Islands...Montserrat...Antigua...Barbuda...St. Kitts...
Nevis...Anguilla...St. Maarten...St. Martin...Saba...St.
Eustatius...Guadeloupe...and St. Barthelemy.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States...please monitor products issued
by your National meteorological service.

At 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Ana was located near latitude 15.2 north...longitude
60.0 west or about 85 miles...135 km...east of Dominica.

The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. A
turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and tomorrow. On
this track the depression will cross the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and enter the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours. Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
shows that the circulation of Ana has become less organized today.
If this trend continues...Ana could degenerate into a tropical wave
tonight or early tomorrow.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft was 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Ana is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over
the Leeward Islands...including Puerto Rico...and the U.S. And
British Virgin Islands...with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
over mountainous terrain.
...Summary of 800 PM AST information...
location...15.2n 60.0w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...west or 275 degrees at 25 mph
minimum central pressure...1008 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.

Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Fred; click the link below for details.
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comfortably_numb!
Posts: 29,468
(17 of 20)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - Ana, First in a late starting 2009 season.

Aug 17, 2009 5:22 AM
| Hurricane Watch Team |000
WTNT32 KNHC 171143
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
800 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...ANA MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...COULD DISSIPATE
TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...
ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH OF ST. CROIX.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...45 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...ANA IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.7N 64.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI



Hurricane Watch - Tropical Storms Ana & Bill tracking threads.
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**christymj**
Posts: 388
(18 of 20)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - Ana, First in a late starting 2009 season.

Aug 17, 2009 8:07 AM
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 17, 2009

...Ana bringing heavy rains to Puerto Rico...
At 11 am AST...1500 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic
has discontinued the tropical storm watch west of Punta Palenque on
the South Coast of Hispaniola...and extended the tropical storm
watch to include the entire north coast of the Dominican Republic.

At 1100 am AST...the government of Antigua and Barbuda has
discontinued the tropical storm watch for St. Kitts...Nevis...and
Anguilla.

At 11 am AST...the meteorological service of Guadeloupe has
discontinued the tropical storm watch for Guadeloupe...St.
Martin...and St. Barthelemy.

At 11 am AST...the government of the Netherlands Antilles has
discontinued the tropical storm watch for Saba...St. Eustatius...
and St. Maarten.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Puerto Rico...the U.S.
Virgin Islands...the British Virgin Islands...and the Dominican
Republic from Punta Palenque to the northern Haiti/Dominican
Republic border. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...in this case within
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States...please monitor products issued
by your National meteorological service.

At 1100 am AST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Ana
was located near latitude 17.3 north...longitude 66.2 west or about
75 miles...125 km...south of San Juan Puerto Rico and about 255
miles...415 km...east-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic.

Ana is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph. A continued
track in this general direction...with a reduction in forward
speed...is expected over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours. However...Ana could degenerate into a tropical wave later
today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Ana is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over
Puerto Rico...the U.S. And British Virgin Islands...and the
Dominican Republic...with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over
mountainous terrain.

...Summary of 1100 am AST information...
location...17.3n 66.2w
maximum sustained winds...35 mph
present movement...west-northwest or 285 degrees at 28 mph
minimum central pressure...1008 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/cangialosi

Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Fred; click the link below for details.
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**christymj**
Posts: 388
(19 of 20)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - Ana, First in a late starting 2009 season.

Aug 17, 2009 8:09 AM
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 17, 2009

the center or wave axis of Ana passed over buoy 42060 around
0830z...and if a center existed at that time it was south of the
buoy. There was one ship report with a light west wind at 12z.
Since that time...new convection with a mid-level spin has
developed near the southeast coast of Puerto Rico. Given these
hints...we will continue advisories at least until a reconnaissance
aircraft investigates Ana this afternoon.
With a center position estimate based on a blend of continuity and
the mid-level rotation seen in the radar data...the initial motion
is 285/24. Ana is expected to continue on a general west-
northwestward track to the south of the subtropical ridge for the
next couple of days...although some erratic motion is possible in
the short term given the poor definition of the circulation...
interaction with land...and potential reformation of the center.
The official forecast follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
solutions for the 850 mb vorticity center. Toward the end of the
forecast period...Ana or its remnants could be embedded within weak
steering over or near the Gulf of Mexico...and the official
forecast calls for a gradual slowing of the forward speed.
The intensity forecast is complicated by the uncertain existence of
an actual tropical cyclone...the land masses in the path of the
system...and highly divergent objective guidance. The environment
of Ana is still characterized by southwesterly shear. The dynamical
models...both global and regional...almost unanimously dissipate
the cyclone...while the statistical models show restrenghening. If
Ana survives its path over the Greater Antilles and emerges to the
north of the Dominican Republic...the global models suggest that a
more favorable upper wind pattern will be present there.
Consequently...the official forecast maintains Ana as a tropical
cyclone through the forecast period. This is...admittedly...
something of a hedge between two more likely alternatives...that of
a tropical storm north of the islands or imminent dissipation.
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/1500z 17.3n 66.2w 30 kt
12hr VT 18/0000z 18.6n 69.4w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 18/1200z 20.5n 73.7w 30 kt
36hr VT 19/0000z 22.3n 77.0w 30 kt
48hr VT 19/1200z 23.7n 79.4w 30 kt
72hr VT 20/1200z 26.5n 82.5w 30 kt
96hr VT 21/1200z 28.0n 83.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 22/1200z 30.0n 83.0w 25 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Franklin/cangialosi

Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Fred; click the link below for details.
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comfortably_numb!
Posts: 29,468
(20 of 20)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - Ana, First in a late starting 2009 season.

Aug 17, 2009 10:19 PM
| Hurricane Watch Team |000
WTNT32 KNHC 172037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...CIRCULATION OF ANA HAS DISSIPATED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ANA NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ANA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 145 MILES...230 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE REMNANTS OF ANA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24
MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.5N 68.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI



... unless it regenerates again.


Hurricane Watch - Tropical Storms Ana & Bill tracking threads.
Note: This poster does not respond to off-board emails.



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