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HURRICANE WATCH - JIMENA Pacific watch
Last Post Sep 1, 2009 8:11 AM by: **christymj**
Replies: 4
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**christymj**
Posts: 388

HURRICANE WATCH - JIMENA Pacific watch

Aug 31, 2009 7:04 AM

Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Fred; click the link below for details.
Natural Disaster and Weather Related Emergency Board
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**christymj**
Posts: 388
(1 of 4)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - JIMENA Pacific watch

Aug 31, 2009 7:06 AM
Statement as of 5:00 am PDT on August 31, 2009

...Powerful Hurricane Jimena continues northwestward...

a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula from Bahia Magdalena southward on the West
Coast...and from San Evaristo southward on the East Coast...
including Cabo San Lucas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for this area later
today.

Interests elsewhere in the southern and central Baja California
peninsula and in western Mainland Mexico should monitor the
progress of Jimena. Additional watches may be required for
portions of these areas later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area outside of the United
States...please monitor products issued by your National
meteorological service.

At 500 am PDT...1200 UTC...the center of Hurricane Jimena was
located near latitude 17.8 north...longitude 108.1 west or about 370
miles...595 km...south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas Mexico.

Jimena is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
gradual increase in forward speed and a turn toward the
north-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On the
forecast track...Jimena will be approaching the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Jimena is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jimena later
today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80
miles...130 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb...27.76 inches.

...Summary of 500 am PDT information...
location...17.8n 108.1w
maximum sustained winds...145 mph
present movement...northwest or 310 degrees at 8 mph
minimum central pressure...940 mb

the next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
800 am PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Fred; click the link below for details.
Natural Disaster and Weather Related Emergency Board
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**christymj**
Posts: 388
(2 of 4)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - JIMENA Pacific watch

Aug 31, 2009 7:07 AM
Statement as of 2:00 am PDT on August 31, 2009

the small eye of Jimena has become a little less distinct in
infrared satellite imagery. An earlier ssmis microwave overpass
also showed a somewhat less defined eye...but with a well-defined
outer band. This may be a sign that an eye-wall replacement has
started...however there have been no recent microwave images to
corroborate this. Due to the recent satellite trends...Dvorak
data-T number have decreased slightly...but a blend of the
objective and subjective current intensity estimates suggests
maintaining an initial intensity of 125 kt.

Jimena is moving northwestward or 310/7 kt. A mid-level ridge
over Mexico and an upper-level low near the West Coast of the
central Baja Peninsula are the features that will play a
role in steering the hurricane. The 0000 UTC models have come into
better agreement on the future track of Jimena. Nearly all of the
models keep the upper-low intact long enough to turn the hurricane
north-northwestward. The outlier to this solution is the UKMET
which continues to show a west-northwestward motion. The Canadian
and ECMWF models have shifted eastward and are now in much better
agreement with the remainder of the guidance in predicting a track
near or over the Baja Peninsula in a couple of days. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially an update to the previous advisory...
and is near the multi-model consensus.

The hurricane is expected to remain over very warm water and in a
low shear environment during the next 24 hours. The official
forecast shows little change in strength during that time...however
fluctuations could occur as the result of an eyewall replacement.
In about 48 hours...westerly shear is forecast to increase. That
combined with possible land interaction should begin to weaken
the hurricane. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the
available guidance and indicates that Jimena could remain a very
dangerous hurricane as it moves near the southern Baja Peninsula.

Based on the current forecast...a Hurricane Warning may be required
later this morning for a portion of the southern Baja Peninsula.
Interests elsewhere in central and southern Baja California and the
western portion of Mainland Mexico should continue to monitor the
progress of Jimena. Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of these areas later today.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Jimena around 1800 UTC today. Data from the aircraft
should provide a better assessment of the intensity and size of the
hurricane.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/0900z 17.5n 107.9w 125 kt
12hr VT 31/1800z 18.5n 108.7w 125 kt
24hr VT 01/0600z 20.1n 109.8w 125 kt
36hr VT 01/1800z 22.1n 110.8w 115 kt
48hr VT 02/0600z 24.1n 111.5w 100 kt
72hr VT 03/0600z 27.2n 112.7w 50 kt...inland
96hr VT 04/0600z 28.5n 113.3w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 05/0600z 29.5n 114.0w 25 kt...remnant low

$$
forecaster Brown

Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Fred; click the link below for details.
Natural Disaster and Weather Related Emergency Board
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**christymj**
Posts: 388
(3 of 4)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - JIMENA Pacific watch

Sep 1, 2009 8:10 AM
Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on September 01, 2009
...Outer rainbands of dangerous Jimena spreading over southern Baja
California...Hurricane Warning extended northward...

at 8 am PDT...1500 UTC...the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane Warning northward along the West Coast of the Baja
California peninsula to Punta Abreojos...and along the East Coast
of the Baja California peninsula to Mulege. A Hurricane Warning is
now in effect for the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula from Puerto abreojos southward on the West Coast...and
from Mulege southward on the East Coast... including Cabo San
Lucas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Baja California peninsula
north of Puerto abreojos on the West Coast to Punta eugenia...and
north of Mulege on the East Coast to Bahia San Juan Bautista. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the West Coast of Mainland
Mexico from Altata to Huatabampito. A tropical storm watch means
that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...
generally within 36 hours. This watch may be extended northward
later today.

Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula and in
northwestern Mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Jimena.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States...please monitor products issued
by your National meteorological service.

At 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...the center of Hurricane Jimena was
located near latitude 21.0 north...longitude 110.7 west or about
140 miles...225 km...south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico and
about 280 miles...455 km...south-southeast of Cabo San Lazaro
Mexico.

Jimena is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph...
19 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next couple of days. On the forecast track...Jimena will be
approaching the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
later today and tonight...and approach the central Baja California
peninsula by Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Jimena has weakened slightly. Maximum sustained winds are
near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Jimena is a category
four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in
strength are likely today...and gradual weakening is forecast on
Wednesday. However...Jimena is expected to remain a major
hurricane until landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.

The minimum central pressure just reported by the hurricane hunter
is 945 mb...27.91 inches.

Jimena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10
inches over the southern half of the Baja California peninsula and
portions of western Mexico during the next couple of days...with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.

A dangerous storm surge along with battering waves will produce
significant coastal flooding along the Baja California peninsula.

...Summary of 800 am PDT information...
location...21.0n 110.7w
maximum sustained winds...145 mph
present movement...north-northwest or 330 degrees at 12 mph
minimum central pressure...945 mb

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1100 am PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 200
PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Fred; click the link below for details.
Natural Disaster and Weather Related Emergency Board
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**christymj**
Posts: 388
(4 of 4)

Re: HURRICANE WATCH - JIMENA Pacific watch

Sep 1, 2009 8:11 AM
Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on September 01, 2009

microwave imagery from the NASA trmm and Aqua satellites...along
with IR imagery...indicate that Jimena is undergoing an eyewall
replacement cycle. The small eye seen earlier is becoming ragged
and cloud-filled...while the microwave data shows an outer eyewall
roughly 30 N mi wide. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft has just reached the center...reporting that the central
pressure has risen to 945 mb...and that the 700 mb flight-level
winds are significantly lower than those measured yesterday. The
initial intensity is lowered to 125 kt...and this could be
generous.

The initial motion is wobbling between 325 and 330 degrees at about
10 kt. Jimena is forecast to continue in a general north-
northwesterly direction during the next couple of days between a
mid/upper-level low west of the Baja Peninsula and a mid-level
ridge over northern Mexico...with all the track guidance in
agreement with this scenario. The forecast become less confident
from 72 hr on due to a large spread in the guidance. The GFDL...
GFDN...and NOGAPS call for Jimena to turn northeastward across
northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States. The rest
of the dynamical guidance either stalls the cyclone over central
Baja California or turns it westward into the Pacific. Overall...
the guidance envelope has shifted a little westward...and so has
the official forecast. After 72 hr...the new track compromises
between the model extremes by calling for a slow northward motion.
The new track calls for landfall on the central Baja California
peninsula in 36-48 hr.

There is a chance that Jimena could intensify some at the end of the
eyewall replacement cycle if that happens before the center reaches
cooler sea surface temperatures. Otherwise...the hurricane should
weaken over steadily cooler water until landfall...although it is
expected to remain a major hurricane until that time. Jimena should
weaken faster during its time over baja. After 72 hr...Jimena
could be moving into the westerlies over northwestern Mexico...
under strong westerly vertical shear over the northern Gulf of
California...or over cold waters west of the Baja Peninsula. All
of those possibilities suggest that the cyclone should weaken to a
remnant low by 120 hr.

Interests in the Hurricane Warning area are advised that strong
winds will precede the arrival of the center by several hours...so
preparations need to be completed very soon. Remember not to focus
on the exact forecast track since dangerous impacts extend some
distance from the center. The forecast track of Jimena is almost
parallel to the coast of Baja California...and small deviations
left or right of the track could result in large errors in both the
location and timing of landfall.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/1500z 21.0n 110.7w 125 kt
12hr VT 02/0000z 22.4n 111.5w 125 kt
24hr VT 02/1200z 24.3n 112.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 03/0000z 25.9n 112.9w 100 kt
48hr VT 03/1200z 27.1n 113.3w 70 kt...inland
72hr VT 04/1200z 28.5n 113.5w 45 kt...inland
96hr VT 05/1200z 30.0n 113.5w 30 kt...over water
120hr VT 06/1200z 31.5n 113.0w 20 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Beven

Hurricane Watch Team monitoring Fred; click the link below for details.
Natural Disaster and Weather Related Emergency Board
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