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Jobless rate tops 10 pct. for first time since '83
Unemployment rate tops 10 percent for first time since 1983; 190,000 jobs lost in October

Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
On 9:23 am EST, Friday November 6, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The unemployment rate has surpassed 10 percent for the first time since 1983 -- and is likely to go higher.

The jobless rate rose to 10.2 percent from 9.8 percent in September. The jump reflects a sharp increase in the tally of unemployed Americans, which rose to 15.7 million from 15.1 million. That was much larger than the net loss of jobs, which is based on a survey of businesses.

Economists say it could climb as high as 10.5 percent next year because employers remain reluctant to hire.

Friday's report is the first since the government said last week that the economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, the strongest signal yet that the economy is rebounding. But that isn't fast enough to spur rapid hiring, raising the specter of a jobless recovery.

"You need explosive growth to take the unemployment rate down," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak & Co.

Greenhaus said the economy soared by nearly 8 percent in 1983 after a steep recession, lowering the jobless rate by 2.5 percentage points that year. But the economy is unlikely to improve that fast this time, as consumers remain cautious and tight credit hinders businesses. In fact, many analysts expect economic growth to moderate early next year, as the impact of various government stimulus programs fades.

Many economists also worry that persistently high unemployment could undermine the recovery by restraining consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy.

One sign of how hard it still is to find a job: the number of Americans who have been out of work for six months or longer rose to 5.6 million, a record. They comprise 35.6 percent of the unemployed population, matching a record set last month.