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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research
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Last Post Mar 29, 2006 3:02 PM by: deirdre@ebay.com
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deirdre@ebay.com
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Feb 23, 2006 3:15 PM
Topic: Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Host: HTDeepAnalysis
Date: Wednesday 3/29
Time: 14:00 to 15:00 PT
Location: Workshop Board

Description: In this workshop, Jen Cano, of Certified Solution Provider HammerTap, will take a close look at how auction research looks into the past to help you determine what is likely to happen on the market in the future. Then, she'll share some ways that you can put your competitor's trials and errors to work for you, using simple research techniques.

Cheers,

Deirdre
eBay Community Development
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:34 PM
Workshop Message #1

Hi, I’m Jen Cano - PR Director for HammerTap. We are a Certified Solution Provider that specializes in eBay market research.

Today I want to answer the question: “How can I put my competitors’ trials and errors to work for me?” This is going to be a little overview of the mechanics of auction research, and how it can help you look into the past to determine what is likely to happen on the market in the future.

I’m going to post the workshop messages every couple of minutes. To help you keep track of the workshop, I’ll mark my workshop posts with the phrase “Workshop Message #” at the top.
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:35 PM
Workshop Message #2

Finding Patterns
Some things seem random. And if you look at the constant changes on eBay, you might be tempted to think it’s random, too. But it’s not (trust me on this one). There definitely are patterns, and if you can identify them, you can start playing the game smarter.

First, though, you have to understand the difference between luck and an indication of future results. Let’s take a look at a spin dial that belongs to one of my kids’ games. It’s one of those dials with four colors: red, blue, yellow, and green.


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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:35 PM
Workshop Message #3

Is 3 out of 3 Luck or an Indication of Future Results?
When we first begin to play, we can’t know what color the arrow is most likely to land on. Let’s say, just for fun, that it lands on red three times in a row. Can we be sure that it will come up red the next time? Is this an indication of future results or is it luck? I’m voting for “luck.”

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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:35 PM
Workshop Message #4

Is 300 out of 300 Luck or an Indication of Future Results?
But, if I spin the dial three hundred times and it lands on red every time, it’s no longer a fluke. It’s an indication of future results. (In this case, it probably just means there’s a sticky spot somewhere close to red). Whatever the reason, I can be pretty safe in assuming that spin number 301 is still going to be red.




But, rarely is the world that cut and dried.

And even if it were, we would never guess by just looking at it. We’d have to experience it lots of times before we figured it out.
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:36 PM
Workshop Message #5

What About 200 out of 300? Is that Good?
Let me ask you another question. What can I assume if the arrow lands on red only 200 times out of 300? In other words, is 200 times out of 300 an indication of future results?

Maybe it is. It just depends on how you look at it, what your game plan is, and how you plan to move forward with that knowledge. In other words, it depends on your strategy.
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:36 PM
Workshop Message #6

For example, if I look at the odds of 200 out of 300 and decide I’m going to bet the whole game on the next spin being red, then no. 200 out of 300 is not a good statistic. I’m counting on luck.

If, on the other hand, I have the luxury of spinning the dial twice, I’m probably safe in assuming that one of those times, the arrow is going to land on red. If I bet that at least once in the next couple of spins the arrow will stick on red, I’m a lot safer, right? I’ve moved from luck to making an educated, calculated decision, based on statistical likelihood.

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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:36 PM
Workshop Message #7

Apply the Spin Dial Statistics to Auction Research
During the game, how do I know the arrow is likely to land on red? I look back at what has happened in the past 300 spins to determine what’s likely to happen next.

You may not realize it, but during this little example, we’ve been doing some statistical analysis. This way of making decisions about what to stake the game on is very close to how we make decisions about how to use auction research.
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:37 PM
Workshop Message #8

Put Your Competitor’s Listings to Work for You
Let’s switch gears for a moment and take a look at how your competitors can help you make decisions about your listings.

Let’s revisit the game with my children and the spinner dial. What happens if I only see the results of my own spins? Am I really getting the big picture?

The obvious answer is no. I’m only seeing a small portion of the spins. I don’t know that 200 of the last 300 spins were red because I didn’t spin all 300 times. And the more people spinning the dial, the less I know about the overall picture, because I’m limited just to the knowledge of my own spins.
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:37 PM
Workshop Message #9

The same is true of listing on eBay. If you are making decisions based only on your own experience, it’s like playing the game without knowing what has worked for the other players and where you are relative to the market. You have to continually guess at what’s coming next because you are seeing the eBay market through a very small window.

When you use an auction research tool, you aren’t limited to your own successes and failures to help you find out what works. You can see every player’s moves. And, you can look at what worked for every listing, and not just your own.
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:37 PM
Workshop Message #10

The Advantage of Making the Competition Work for You
So, what’s the advantage of being able to study listings that aren’t yours?

• Get a more complete view of the entire market.
• Let others do the trial and error for you.
• Preview how a product performs without having to list first.

I hope you caught that last bullet point. This is a really simple, but huge concept. Every time one of your competitors lists an auction, it will either succeed or fail. If, for example, your competitors sell your product 2 times out of 3, you know the product is likely to sell 2 out of 3 times in the future.
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:37 PM
Workshop Message #11

Also, if you see that more listings had a higher selling price when they included bold (or some other feature), you know to use bold with your own listings. Or, if bold didn’t bring more success, you know to save your money on that feature and list without it.

In this way, your competitors test the market for you. Their successes and failures tell you:
• which features work,
• which day of the week to end your listing,
• which duration works best,
• which starting price gets the best ending price,
• which category has the best chance of selling, and
• well, you get the idea!
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:37 PM
Workshop Message #12

Practical Research Example
Let’s take a look at a real example. The example below is from some research I did this past week for CDs in the Music category. The research revealed that ACDC sold about 73% of the time.

When I looked deeper to find out how I might increase my chances of selling, as well as how I might increase the sales price, here’s what I found out about ending day:

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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:38 PM
Workshop Message #13

What can I learn from my competition in the research example above?
I can see that only 50% of listings ending on Wednesdays sold. (See the Auction Success Rate column.) On the other hand, I can see that 92% of listings ending on Saturdays sold. Beyond that, I can see that Saturday also yielded the best selling price. (See the ASP column.)

I can use this information to decide to end my listings on Saturday for an incredibly high chance of selling and a better profit.

Without information about what did and didn’t work for my competitor, I could waste a lot of time trying to figure it out on my own.

By watching my competitor’s listings, I can see clearly what I should do for my own listings. And it’s different with every category, every product, and often with every brand.
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htdeepanalysis
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Member Workshop: Predicting Market Performance with Auction Research

Mar 29, 2006 1:38 PM
Workshop Message #14

I hope you’ve enjoyed this short exploration of the mechanics of eBay research and how you can put your competitors’ listings to work for you—win or lose! We’ve covered three concepts during this workshop:

Luck vs. Statistical Likelihood
When you base selling decisions on just a few listings, you’re guessing. But, when you base decisions on many listings (whether they’re your own or someone else’s), you are making an informed decision.

Seeing the Whole Game
When you use auction research, you get to see a much larger view of the eBay marketplace. This way, you can more easily see opportunities or pitfalls you otherwise wouldn’t see.

With Research, Your Competitors are Your Friends
Research compiles all of your competitors’ wins and losses to reveal which brand names sell, the price you can expect to get, which listing features (such as bold or highlight) are worth your money, and etc.
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